1. Gold: Safe-Haven Demand Dominates, Long-Term Uptrend Continues

  • Performance & Drivers
  • In early 2025, gold prices continue hitting record highs (London spot gold surpasses $2,900/oz, up over 10% year-to-date), driven by geopolitical uncertainty (e.g., Trump’s potential return to the White House), the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle, and central bank purchases. Gold’s dual role as a financial asset (inverse correlation with real interest rates) and safe-haven tool strengthens its appeal in volatile markets.
  • Outlook: With the Fed expected to cut rates by 50 basis points in 2025 and a weakening dollar-centric system, gold’s bull cycle may last 7+ years, still in its early phase.
  • Allocation Advice: Moderate allocation (e.g., 10%). Focus on gold miners like Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining, whose stocks closely track gold prices.

2. Bitcoin: High Volatility with Speculative Potential

  • Performance & Debate
  • Bitcoin’s year-to-date gain of 4% lags far behind gold, with extreme volatility (e.g., a $10,000 crash in February 2025). While dubbed "digital gold," its safe-haven status remains unproven, behaving more like a speculative asset.
  • Long-Term Case: Growing institutional adoption (e.g., Bloomberg’s Bitcoin-Gold Hybrid Index) and strategic reserve narratives (e.g., Zhu Su’s "Bitcoin Strategic Reserves") could solidify its role as a digital store of value.
  • Risks: Cryptocurrency trading is illegal in China; avoid high leverage. High-risk investors should limit exposure to <5%.

3. Stocks: Structural Opportunities & Sector Divergence

  • U.S. Tech Stocks:
  • AI-driven giants like the "MAG7" (e.g., Nvidia, up 179% in 2024) remain key players. Monitor earnings sustainability and regulatory risks (e.g., antitrust scrutiny) in 2025.
  • A-Share Gold Miners & Cyclicals:
  • Gold stocks (e.g., Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining) benefit from rising gold prices. Resource sectors (copper, rare earths) may thrive amid deglobalization.
  • Allocation Tips:
  • Aggressive portfolios can allocate up to 90% to stocks (tech/resources focus), while balanced portfolios should mix equities with bonds.

4. Portfolio Strategy

  • Diversification: Gold and Bitcoin’s low correlation (0.09) reduces risk. Example: 10% gold, 2-5% Bitcoin, 60-80% stocks.
  • Risk Profiles:
  • Conservative: Prioritize gold + bonds; avoid volatile assets.
  • Balanced: Blend gold + high-quality stocks (e.g., tech leaders) + minimal Bitcoin.
  • Aggressive: Overweight tech stocks + Bitcoin; avoid excessive leverage.

Conclusion: 2025 Investment Ranking by Risk-Reward

  1. Gold: Core defensive asset with favorable macro trends.
  2. Stocks (tech/resources): High growth potential but selective.
  3. Bitcoin: Speculative bet for risk-tolerant investors; monitor regulations.

Key Risks: Market volatility may exceed expectations; rebalance dynamically. Chinese investors must comply with local laws (crypto bans). Avoid leverage traps.